Following Karls' Families

[Treia]

Good morning!

I have also thought that Päike is a little bit scared of water,
but after a little hesitation she still went resolutely on her journey...

If Päike has been flying all the time in the same direction, the journey across the sea has been endlessly long, but hopefully she/he has resting on some of the many oil or gas platforms, or has traveled on a ship!

And because I do not want to believe in bad news yet or not at all, I remembered that when Ospreys have crossed the same sea, it generally lasted 5 or 6 or 7 days (or even more) before the new update came.

So... I hope that Päike is okay !

[sova]

Good morning to all

Karl - no new data

[sova]

Maru (09.10.) Ukraine (Weather data - 11:00)

temp; 12 °
Precipitation; 0 mm
Humidity; 80%
Wind; 100 m - SE (06 km / h)

Wind; 250 m - SE (10 km / h)

Wind; 500 m - SE (10 km / h)


15:00
100 m - different wind directions (07 km / h)
250 m - different wind directions (07 km / h)
500 m - different wind directions (07 km / h)

[sova]

Karula (09.10.) Bulgaria (Weather data - 11:00)

temp; 17 °
Precipitation; 0 mm
Humidity; 60%
Wind; 100 m - N (17 km / h)

Wind; 250 m - N (19 km / h)

Wind; 500 m - NE (15 km / h)


15:00
100 m - NE (17 km / h)
250 m - NE (20 km / h)
500 m - NE (22 km / h)

[sova]

Päike - no new data

[Solo]

TODAY MORNING SITUATION

- maps: https://www.looduskalender.ee/forum/vie ... 31#p617931

- data:
MARU
- Distance: 3221 km, Last data: 09.10.2018
- probably searching for food, not so far from the village Stepanivka, Chernivtsi Oblast, Ukraine
- https://www.looduskalender.ee/forum/vie ... 46#p617946

KARULA
- Distance: 2906 km, Last data: 09.10.2018
- night area, in the wider area the village Малка Поляна (Malka Polyana), Aytos Municipality, Burgas Province, in southeastern Bulgaria
- https://www.looduskalender.ee/forum/vie ... 52#p617952

PÄIKE
- Distance: 3257 km, Last data: 07.10.2018
- over Mediterranean Sea (departure: Peloponnese, not far - close by he little island Schiza)
- https://www.looduskalender.ee/forum/vie ... ke#p617664
- the last known localisation (by Urmas) http://up.picr.de/34033191pn.jpg

KARL
- Distance: 5846 km, Last data: 08.10.2018
- maybe night area, forward of the village Old Dongola (deserted town located on the east bank of the Nile), Northern (one of the 18 wilayat or states of Sudan), Sudan
- https://www.looduskalender.ee/forum/vie ... 97#p617797

EEDI
- Distance: 6728 km, Last data: 09.10.2018
- in the area the Tendha dam, in the province of Khamis Mushayt in the Asir Region, Saudi Arabia
- https://www.looduskalender.ee/forum/vie ... 90#p617790

[sova]

Mr. Urmas, thanks for the message. We hope the best....

[chrisitz]

Treia, thats true. I was also worrying about osprey Marcus, because there were no new datas for several days....
I hope so much....

[sova]

Here is Päike's way to see something further
13:44 .... and there is still a long way to fly

[Solo]

Here is Päike's way to see something further 13:44 .... and there is still a long way to fly ...

Sova, TY - where is that info?

[baska]

Sova, TY - where is that info?

Annexation from Urmas on page 63

[Solo]

Annexation from Urmas on page 63

https://www.looduskalender.ee/forum/vie ... 51#p617951
Päike - the last known localisation (by Urmas) http://up.picr.de/34033191pn.jpg

Baska, TY

[Liz01]

Oh dear
Päike does not fly very high (218m) and also he/she is very slowly with 18km/hr.

[Solo]

Oh dear Päike does not fly very high (218m) and also he/she is very slowly with 18km/hr.

Dr. M. Strazds: I checked the flight speed of some birds for which we have complete data from the previous years for the sections of their flight over water – across Iskenderun bay and across the Gulf of Suez. The ground speed as fixed by their tags varied between 11.39 km/h and 15.68 km/h with the average value of 14.48 km/h.

but also that: Alternative is the non-stop flight (purple line) as fixed by gps locations without landing anywhere. The time between leaving the land until landing on the other side in this case is 18 hours and the distance covered oversea – at least 578.8 km. The average flight speed in this case is 27.6 km/h.
(http://www.goris.lv/en/how-to-cross-mediterranean/)

and that - !inland, WS ("The present study is focused on the migration of White Storks in northeastern Bulgaria and aims to investigate the horizontal and vertical distribution of migrating storks, and how the dynamics of that distribution are influenced by the weather conditions."):
We demonstrated that the migration route of White Storks in the study area extends up to 70 km inland from the coast. The most intensive was the migration in the early afternoon, during the last 10 days of August and under north-coming winds. The majority of storks was flying above 400 m and the altitude of flight was influenced by the air temperatures and the day hour. The main driver for the flight distance from the sea was the wind direction. (http://www.acta-zoologica-bulgarica.eu/ ... 83-292.pdf)

[baska]

Solo, it is ernormous, what you do remember and what you still have in your brain !
TY for your interesting informations and links !

[Liz01]

Dr. M. Strazds: I checked the flight speed of some birds for which we have complete data from the previous years for the sections of their flight over water – across Iskenderun bay and across the Gulf of Suez. The ground speed as fixed by their tags varied between 11.39 km/h and 15.68 km/h with the average value of 14.48 km/h.

............

Solo, I know the data.
I work with statistics every day!
It's about how many hours Päike has to fly over the sea, at that speed. That's why I wrote he / she flies slowly.

[Solo]

...

Baska, I wrote to your question ( PM) answer now (PM)

[Solo]

... It's about how many hours Päike has to fly over the sea, at that speed. That's why I wrote he / she flies slowly.

Liz, pls, and what is the "good" high and the "good" speed in that case (flying above sea) ?

I know only that
1/ Lonja's data: 6h - 425km - 70 km/h and
2/ Feja's data: 18 hours - 578.8 km - 27.6 km/h.

nothing about high

[Anne7]

Hello, everyone!

Thanks a lot or the updates.

Urmas, many thanks for the extra info!

Liz, pls, and what is the "good" high and the "good" speed in that case (flying above sea) ?

I know only that
1/ Lonja's data: 6h - 425km - 70 km/h and
2/ Feja's data: 18 hours - 578.8 km - 27.6 km/h.
nothing about high

Solo , if the average speed (Dr. M. Strazds) of BS over the water is indeed 14,48 km/h, a simple calculation shows us that Päike would have to perform a non-stop flight of about 34,5 hours.
(500km : 14,48 km/h = 34,5 hours)

The extra info that Urmas sent us shows that Päike was (at that moment) flying at 18 km/h. It would still take 27,5 hours non-stop flying to reach Libya, at that speed. (500 km : 18 km/h = 27,7 hours)

I honestly believe that this would have been too much, too far, too long for our Päike...

But as Urmas wrote: "I can not say more about, that may be only assumptions, but nothing really new..."
"But who knows the truth about Päike?".
We simply do not know what happened to her.
Very maybe, Päike returned to the island Schiza... and is still there... (We can always hope.)
And maybe she really tried to cross the Mediterranean Sea but didn't make it...

About the flight height. It is known that they try to get as high as possible on a thermal before they start crossing the water...

"... The storks rise as high as they can over the southern tip of Spain, after which they “surf” above the sea at height before once again picking up the thermals over land in North Africa. ..."
Your link: (source: http://www.bbc.com/earth/story/20160321 ... bird-wings)

In Päike's case, there were no new thermals to pick up (no land), and she will have lost height, inevitably.

In this BBC documentary, we can see how close to the water WS fly.
http://www.infocobuild.com/books-and-fi ... t-bbc.html
Episode 3 - Europe
White storks leave Africa and struggle to reach Istanbul, the gateway to Europe, while cranes take an easier route over the monkey-guarded Rock of Gibraltar.

But these are just my assumptions...

Edit:
Schiza is a Greek island off the southwestern coast of the Peloponnese. According to 2011 census, the island is uninhabited. It is the largest island of the Messenian Oinousses, an island complex that consists of two main islands (Schiza and Sapientza) and few rocky islets. Its area is 12.3 Km2. Schiza along with other Messenian Oinousses have been included in the Natura 2000 Network, with code GR2550003.
(source: wikipedia)

[kuhankeittäjä]

...

Think we need to be ready for losses in brood, unfortunately. But who knows truth about Päike?

Thanks Urmas!

Considering the weather at last transmission point
Estimated wind 8m/sek from SW
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/10/0 ... 768,36.631
and a delay on Island Sapientz the following could have happened, as partly discussed already:

The migration swarm had taken advantage of the last European thermal above island Sapientz and started gliding towards Africa. After some 10 - 15 min flight with no new thermals either Päike had separated or whole swarm changed its course towards Greek Island Schiza, where it had taken lift of a thermal again and continued to the direction Greek Island Crete (200km) or African coast in East Libya - West Egypt (>600km). ... Unfortunately the rotating wind had blown it more to the SW towards open sea. ... The storks have had to do a lot of wing flapping to reach solid ground. Hopefully they found some man made platforms to rest or are staying as captains guests until the ship arrives to harbour.

Edit: Without having seen this kind of data sheet before I became curious to know whether a relatively high vertical acceleration compared to horizontal accelerations is normal, or does it indicate something else? I understand that wing flapping can create vertical acceleration to keep a BS airborne.

In best case the migration swarm just played this zig zag flight in front of the coast and landed somewhere with no available GSM or GPS connection, after the last transmission around noontime Oct 7, and still are feeding themselves there. Who knows for sure, so far.